To stop Spanish Floods, should we add more solar panels or more dams?

 

By Jo Nova

Oh the Dilemma?

More than 219 people have drowned and another 80 are still missing after the devastating floods in Valencia, Spain. The UN expert climate scientists say that shutting coal plants and building windmills is the best way to stop floods.

Matt Ridley is wondering if removing 133 dams had anything to do with it, or if perhaps they should have built the big dam that was approved in 2001 but stopped by the Socialists in 2004:

Dam shame: what really caused Valencia’s floods?

Matt Ridley, The Spectator

… Valencia had a similarly terrible flood in 1957, in which 81 people died, long before climate change became the go-to excuse for any bad weather. After that flood, to prevent a recurrence, the Spanish government built a string of dams in the hills to hold back water and diverted the Turia river away from the city. For more than six decades the system worked well. Why did it fail this year? Because the unusually warm sea made for an unusually bad storm, say some. Yet charts of rainfall in Spain show no trend towards a higher frequency of more extreme downpours…

Indeed, 24 hour torrential rainfall records back to 1940 don’t sing the Climate Change song. Since 1982 human emissions of CO2 have grown from a cumulative total of 640 billion tons up to 1,800 billion tons and it hasn’t made the slightest difference to downpours.

That’s a 280% increase in man-made CO2 and there’s nothing to show for it.

Matt Ridley points to the enthusiastic dam removal programs the EU has been ordering:

In the past few years, the Spanish government has been removing dams at a furious rate. Under a European Union programme to encourage the restoration of rivers to their wild state for the benefit of fish migration, Spain set about dismantling barriers of all kinds. In 2021 it got rid of 108 dams and weirs; in 2022, another 133. That year, according to Dam Removal Europe, a coalition of seven green pressure groups, it was Europe’s proud league champion at dismantling them…

The billionaire’s ski club called the WEF brags about how many dams they have removed: The removal of dams in Europe is reviving rivers and boosting biodiversity

Removal of Dams in Spain

The BBC was touting the environmental wonders of dam removal in Europe only 6 months ago:

They not only cause biodiversity loss, impacting fish and microorganisms, but also prevent nutrients and sediments from flowing downstream, hindering fisheries and the livelihoods that depend on them.

Research now shows that at least 1.2 million instream obstacles block river flows in 36 European countries, with about 68% less than 2m (6.6ft) in height. “Even barriers as small as 20cm (8in) may impact or delay the movement of some organisms,” says Carlos Garcia de Leaniz professor in Aquatic Biosciences at Swansea University and coordinator of Amber, a project that created the first atlas of European river barriers.

Some dams are sacred though — no bureaucrat is going to get rid of a hydro-dam. They stop floods by reducing human CO2 emissions which may in a thousand years, slightly reduce world temperatures in such a way as to change jet-streams, and maybe possibly, lessen the intensity of downfalls. Screw the fish eh?

Acknowledging that dams have a detrimental effect on ecosystems doesn’t mean denying hydropower’s benefits in supplying energy, however. “Absolutely nobody is proposing to blow up or remove barriers which are in use,” clarifies Garcia de Leaniz…

But as Matt Ridley notes, the Cheste dam was “was specifically designed to prevent flooding, to ‘regulate the flows coming from the upper basin of the Poyo and Pozalet ravines’.” It was abandoned in 2004. “Could it have saved Valencia?” he wonders, pointing out that “the city of Aragon was saved last month by a dam built by the emperor Augustus.”

 

10 out of 10 based on 107 ratings

93 comments to To stop Spanish Floods, should we add more solar panels or more dams?

  • #

    Why on earth would anyone remove so many dams once they were built? Was the environmental impact that bad? Surely if it were then what about inventive ways to combat the impact.

    With all the rain that we have had here in Australia over the past 3 years or so, we should have built more dams during the previous drought periods.

    It’s hard to build a dam when its raining a lot IMHO.

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    • #
      Geoff

      https://www.youtube.com/shorts/C4zTosYDjLE?feature=share

      Socialism delivers floods, fire and famine.

      When people want stuff for free they are prepared to knowingly vote for tyranny.

      Tyrants can never run a balanced budget. They MUST have control of treasury to maintain power in a democracy.

      Dams and pipelines from dams are not going to make desalination spivs money.

      If dams exist or rivers are allocated for new dams they must be removed and unallocated by environmental law to make the only solution desalination.

      Desalination is an ever increasing tax on water. Loved by government, BigSuper and banks.

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    • #
      Curious George

      It is a progressive urge to leave their mark on everything. When Communists took over Czechoslovakia, my friend was in high school. His class was sent to the mountains, where generations of farmers were tilling fields and carrying rocks to the property line. Their task was to dismantle these stony bounds and throw rocks back to fields, so preparing the land for collectivization.

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    • #
      StephenP

      Why are environmentalists in the UK touting the benefits of introducing beavers into the headwaters of rivers?
      Apparently the dams they build slow the flow of water from heavy rainfall and reduced the risk of flooding downstream.
      Maybe we need to reinvent the wheel.

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  • #
    Mike Jonas

    The same loonies that oppose cutting down trees and oppose dams are reintroducing beavers to the UK.

    “Even barriers as small as 20cm (8in) may impact or delay the movement of some organisms,” says Carlos Garcia de Leaniz professor in Aquatic Biosciences at Swansea University. Yeah, right.

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    • #
      Steve4192

      Dams are fine when they are built by cute furry little critters.

      It’s only when devilspawn hairless apes built them that they become evil.

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  • #
    Philip

    With a head full of skepticism on the Valencia floods, I headed to twitter and saw a satellite image of the flooding and immediately thought, poor hydrographical planning.

    Among the sea of comments like “such a huge storm”, “warm sea”, “climate change” and complaining about the government not helping, I saw one lone comment from a Spanish guy living in the mountain area of the deluge explaining the rain wasn’t so unusual and its most likely all the dams they have been removing. Bingo!

    Maybe Spain still has PTSD from when the almighty Elizabeth 1 conjured up storms that sunk the Spanish Armada, and it just can’t deal with the reality of storms logically?

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    • #
      Greg in NZ

      By the looks of it another hurricane [sic] is about to go *climactic* over the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco causing – oopsala mein Klaus – snow on higher elevations both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar … or the Gates of Hades?

      Boiling Causes Freezing! Send money to –

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    • #
      GreatAuntJanet

      It is widely known that the rain in Spain stays mainly on the plain.

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  • #
    Scott

    David Burton aka Inigo Jones, has said the planetary cycles are all lining up for major floods end 2025 through to 2029.

    I keep mentioning this because, when the floods do come they will try to blame man made climate change rather than the natural event they will be.

    I know of one council in FNQ that has taken this seriously and pulled the next ten years of drainage works, forward.

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  • #
    david

    Instead of removing dams, if climate change and lack of nutrients downstream worries you, just keep some water flowing 24/7. This goes on even here in Australia. Otherwise leave the dams alone. It will help in times of heavy rains. Mankind is going through a very stupid phase at the moment.

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    • #
      Dennis

      Like 2018 drought and Murray-Darling river system river banks flooded around Mildura, Wentworth and other places, environmental protection release of dam water.

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  • #
    winston

    Why not both? Build dams and levees with defective or damaged pv panels and wind turbine blades.

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  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    Those parasite-class elite flogs at the current COP junket won’t connect the systematic removal of Spain’s dams to the Valencia flood disaster, as usual, they’ll be blaming climate change. These people are criminally insane.

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  • #
    el+gordo

    The insurance companies have taken a hit, it might be time to organise a class action to expose political negligence and compensate those impacted.

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  • #
    TdeF

    I also read that after the 1957 drownings, the government built a diversion channel. But people liked it so much there was unrestricted development along the diversion channel. Which is where the worst flooding occurred. Of course. It was designed to take the flood!

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Back in the day, people understood the purpose of dams.

    They were not installed for decoration.

    The purpose of building dams was:

    -Flood mitigation.
    -Electricity generation.
    -Irrigation.
    -Water supply.
    -various other reasons.

    Before removing the dams don’t you think some of these Leftists should have bothered inquiring why those 133 dams were built in the first place?

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    • #
      Steve4192

      Of course not.

      Those dead white men only built things out of spite and hatred for Gaia. The only proper response it to knock them all down … unless they control the weather by producing electricity.

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    • #
      Plain Jane

      I am sure the loss of life and flooding damage was a feature of the dam removal plans, not an unintended consequence. What else is a UN re-wilding program for if not to get rid of the plebs.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Similarly to Spain, large numbers of people are subject to flooding in Western Sydney because Leftists refuse to follow engineering recommendations to extend the height of the Warragamba Dam wall.

    Of course, people shouldn’t build on flood plains in the first place…

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    • #

      Flood plains are flat so it is easy and cheap to build buildings and roads on them. Building on hillsides is difficult and very expensive.

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      • #
        Graeme4

        In Western Australia, a country town allowed new building to occur on a flood plain beside a river that had not flooded for a very long time. And sure enough, after the new residences were built, the river did flood, damaging all houses. So after the house remains were demolished, the land was again rezoned as a no-go building site. And no doubt, in another 50-100 years, they will rezone the land again for building. And the cycle will continue…

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      • #
        TdeF

        Flood plains are waterfront real estate of course. Like the sand cliff dwellers in California who see their houses slide into the sea. But they knew that!

        However when Climate Change turned up, councils took great pleasure in declaring stable long term waterside areas unlivable as future flood zones. In our area the insurance tripled for a time. It’s all settled back now as the water has not changed in a few hundred years, but every potential disaster is a chance to wield power and make money. As with the Wuhan Flu or any of the wars.

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        • #
          TdeF

          And in the 19th century, anyone with money lived on top of the hills because everything went downhill into the rivers and creeks. Only the poor lived on the edge of water! The stench was so bad from the Thames in London that lime soaked sheets were hung in the houses of Parliament to try to suppress the stink.

          Then with sewage, riverside real estate exploded in value, prompting unscrupulous developers and councils to build right next to the water in what was previously unwanted land. Which flooded.

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    • #
      old cocky

      They’re largely subject to flooding because lots of newer developments have been built on the Hawkesbury flood plain.

      Once the Warragamba dam wall has been raised and strengthened, 2 things will happen.

      1/ New development will be allowed on the Richmond and Windsor flood plains because “it won’t flood again”
      2/ The flood mitigation buffer will be encroached on for water storage, just like Wivenhoe dam in Qld.

      The dam wall works should help a bit, but not to the extent people might think.

      The Warragamba River is a major tributary of the lower Nepean/Hawkesbury, but a hell of a lot of water comes in from the Nepean and Grose Rivers, and is backed up by pinch points downstream of Windsor.

      The Conversation even had a half decent article

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      • #
        John PAK

        Good points Old Cocky.
        The region has weird geography with all the rivers flowing northwards past Sydney through a narrow section to Wisemans Ferry. Once the lakes created at Nepean, Avon, Bordeaux, Cataract and Warragamba are full there is a massive catchment flowing out to sea north of Sydney and it all has to escape through a cliffy section near Sackville Ferry.
        30 years ago I built a house near the Hawkesbury River but I laid an extra few courses of bricks and all living areas are 9ft above the garage concrete. It alarms me to see new developments which will be under water during the “one in a 120 years flood”. If the world was run by tradesmen we’d build a secondary Warragamba dam wall a few km downstream purely as a back-up for those rare times when the main Warragamba Reservoir over-flows.
        In the short lives of humans the Windsor area has not seen a really serious flood but there are marks in stone walls at Windsor which record flood heights since white settlement and I suspect that this Grand Solar Minimum era with it high atmospheric moisture levels, will deliver a really big one.
        I’d be replanting the river banks with trees and then dredging the now silted up river channel to speed up water discharge but that is too simple for bureaucrats to grasp.

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        • #
          old cocky

          Once the lakes created at Nepean, Avon, Bordeaux, Cataract and Warragamba are full

          The Cataract, Cordeaux, Avon and Nepean lakes are quite small, so do sod all for Nepean floods.

          If the world was run by tradesmen we’d build a secondary Warragamba dam wall a few km downstream purely as a back-up for those rare times when the main Warragamba Reservoir over-flows.

          I don’t think that would work, John. There isn’t much volume between the current dam wall and the confluence of the Warragamba and Nepean Rivers, so that wouldn’t do much.

          A dam in the Nepean Gorge between Warragamba and Penrith would flood the lower lying areas along the Nepean back towards Camden. It might not go down especially well.

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          • #
            John PAK

            I agree that an extra wall a km down-stream would be limited in its mitigation effect but the Hawkesbury flood-plain is highly urbanised these days and even one day of extra evacuation time would be useful. The obvious solution is to over-ride Sydney Water who steadfastly refuse to vent the dam early. We had heavy rainfall in the first week of June and the river rose very rapidly. I took a picture as I crossed the river at North Richmond where the water was lapping the underside of the road way of the bridge and they closed it ten minutes later. The rain was forecast and modelling is quite good now yet Sydney Water did not commence releasing water in the days before the rain event. Repeatedly, we see the flood mitigation potential of our dams being ignored.

            10

            • #
              old cocky

              They’re between a rock and a hard place, really.

              The water level was kept down while the auxiliary spillway was being built some years ago, then we had a drought and everybody started to panic about the low water levels.

              One of the problems is the concentration on Warragamba Dam, without considering the volume of water coming down the Nepean and Grose. There isn’t much scope for further flood mitigation on the Nepean, but it might be feasible on the Grose.

              00

              • #
                John PAK

                The Grose has a narrow rock section at the bottom of the Waterboard Track off Cabbage Tree Rd, Grose Vale. A 50m wall does not make a large reservoir as the Grose River climbs steeply heading back upstream but it would catch the flood waters of exceptional rainfall.
                The Colo River is a great untamed wilderness region with ample dam sites. The river cuts right across the Blue Mtns from Mudgee to the Hawkesbury in a deep gorge which floods periodically. I got swept down a Grade 6 fall near Blacksmith’s Creek after only one night of rainfall put an extra 5 ft of water in the river and a friend spent a night dangling off a rope on a cliff further upstream when the water rose 30 ft during an SAS training exercise.
                I like the idea of wilderness areas but I’d be happy to see flood mitigation walls on all rivers to smooth out peak flows such as these but leave them open almost all of the time.

                10

              • #
                old cocky

                We’ve run out of nesting depth on replies again 🙁

                John, that’s interesting stuff about the Grose and Colo. I’m not very familiar with those rivers, so that’s something new to add to the memory banks.

                Does the Colo add to flooding at Windsor and Richmond, or does it come in too far downstream?
                I know the Warragamba can send enough water down Nepean Gorge in a really big flood to cause the Nepean to back up, and the Grose does something similar.

                00

      • #
        Mike Jonas

        Many years ago, I canoed on the Grose river. About 60ft up the bank there were some tall trees growing. Maybe another 60ft up those trees there was flotsam from the last flood. When those rivers flood they really flood. NB. That Asten and McCracken paper in 2022 said to expect 40 years of above average rainfall on the eastern seaboard* – and that means Nepean/Hawkesbury floods. If they are going to get the dam raised they had better get it done soon.
        *Lake George is now full, having been empty for 40 years – looks like Asten and McCracken got it right.

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        • #
          GlenM

          Many years ago lake George supported a commercial fishing industry supplying markets with redfin Perch (Perca Fluviatalis ?) and to a lesser extent Brown Trout and Murray Cod.

          30

    • #
      Graeme4

      And towns should not be built in river bends on low-lying areas. But it seems a lot of country towns in Australia are built in those locations.

      50

      • #
        old cocky

        They don’t have much choice, really. It’s all low lying.
        The usual approach is to build levee banks at least a foot higher than the largest known flood.

        Because the flood plains are so wide and there is so little fall along the course of the river, typical flood levels are only a couple of feet. Fifty miles wide, but only two feet deep.

        20

  • #
    David Maddison

    It’s just incomprehensible that 133 dams were destroyed without wondering why the dams were there in the first place.

    Leftist “logic” at its finest…

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  • #
    David Maddison

    As I said in the last day or so, Leftists love to count hydro power among “their” mix of “renewables” even though unlike wind and solar, it is a properly engineered system to provide 24/7 electricity at low cost. It long predates the use of subsidy-harvesting wind and solar plantations and it’s unfair to count it with the unreliables.

    Anyway, the Left can’t have it both ways.

    They can’t count hydro as a “renewable” and at the same time call for the destruction of dams.

    It’s a classic case of Doublethink, something Leftists are particularly prone to.

    Doublethink: the acceptance of contrary opinions or beliefs at the same time, especially as a result of political indoctrination.

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  • #
    Maurie Cuskelly

    Does it ever occur to to you anthropogenic climate change sceptics, that every time “homo insipiens” not sapien, tries to fight nature he loses. If nature had wanted dams there beavers would have done the job without killing fish, causing earthquakes, silt up rivers and changing the whole river eco system.

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    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Back in the day (1990s) there was a bottle-shop in Queenstown, NZ called Beaver Liquor – not sure if it was the cure-all for human overpopulation, but it sure always tasted good on a hot summer’s day.

      /slurp

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    • #
      Ross

      Does Spain have beavers?

      40

    • #
      Lance

      Does it ever occur to the CAGW fanatics that nothing they have ever predicted has ever come to pass? Does it ever occur to the CAGW fanatics that it is not beavers that control flooding, but rather engineering does so in a scientific and predicable manner?

      The Hoover and Grand Coulee dams in America come to mind. Fantastic flood control and hydrogeneration, as well as potable water supplies for Nevada and California.

      If you lived in a flood zone, with rational flood control alternatives and/or hydroelectric generation potential, you’d be insane to remove or interfere with dam projects.

      Navel gazing is cost free, but often fact free, and usually without merit.

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    • #
      william x

      Does it ever occur to to you anthropogenic climate change sceptics, that every time “homo insipiens” not sapien, tries to fight nature he loses.

      In answer – Yes.

      An example:

      Our prime “homo insipient” Climate change Minister thinks he can change the weather with solar panels, wind turbines, pumped hydro and batteries.
      Despite billions spent, years trying, he hasn’t changed the worlds temp one iota.. It seems nature doesn’t care. So I am happy to replace him with a beaver.

      Also – You will find that most anthropogenic climate change sceptics are not fools. “Intelligentes” is the more apt description.

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  • #
    Ross

    Wivenhoe dam anyone? The poor management of that dam, originally built to mitigate flooding for the city of Brisbane, contributed to the major flood of 2010/11 which caused about $2b in eventual damage. So, you can have dams built, but also poorly managed. In this case, because of the irrational fears of climate change, the dam managers let the dam get too full. Idiots. So when the rain started there was no capacity in the dam to take up the excess water. Worst still, they had to hurriedly try to empty the dam, which contributed to even more damage. Has anyone been prosecuted or sent to jail for this negligence. Nope, who cares about the 33 dead and 3 missing anyway.

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    • #
      Maurie Cuskelly

      Ross! That is a totally untrue statement. The Q.F.C.I. hired hydrological and hydraulic engineering consultant to investigate the dam releases’ contribution to flooding.
      The report stated “ no one strategy can be optimised for every possible flow scenario. (WMA 2011) Overall Wivenhoe and Somerset Dams appeared to have reduced flood depths between 1.5 and 3m (Sinclair Knight Metz 2011) During the December 2010 floods/January 2011 floods, a total of 33 people were killed with 3 still missing (presumed dead) (QFCI 2012). HOWEVER, ZERO FATALITIES CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE OPERATION OF THE DAMS.”

      Please note the last line of this part of the report, which is conveniently left out when people try to shift or find blame on some poor fellow who couldn’t predict the future like his detractors.

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      • #
        Ross

        Well, they would say that wouldn’t they? The Wivenhoe dam was built specifically for flood abatement with the added bonus of using it for storage. Why? Because Brisbane had experienced many catastrophic floods in the past. Which is a scenario similar to Valencia and many other places around the world where these type of dams are built.

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      • #
        melbourne+resident

        Absolute nonsense Maurie – when I arrived in Queensland on holiday in 1980 – my father (a QS who investigated a lot of the damage from the 1974 flooding) pointed out the level the previous flooding reached in downtown Brisbane (way above our heads) which was why Wivenhoe was built. They then lowered the estimated flood level along the Brisbane River from 11m MSL to 8m MSL – so when they mismanaged it, as correctly stated by Ross, because of fears the water stored would be lost (because quote “it was not going to rain again – and if it did – it wouldn’t fill our dams” unquote). Is it such a surprise that many of the riverside developments (of which I was involved in in the early 1990s) were flooded. I was in Queensland on Fraser Island during the cyclone and struggled to get off the island due to flooding of the roads (and its a sand island!) then dodged flooding all the way back to Victoria when the inland Tsunami carried people and cars way in the Lockyear valley. I am an engineering geologist and it is ignorance of people who dont understand natural systems the results in these bad decisions being made. I subsequently sat at a table during an Engineers Australia Function with the former head of Queensland Water and he would not admit that they made a mistake – blaming it all on the so-called “experts” for their bad advice. that’s where we are now at where faceless experts tell us what to do then wont take any blame for their stupidity.

        10

    • #
      Annie

      As with Eildon two years ago.

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    • #
      Strop

      An interesting read.

      https://damfailures.org/case-study/wivenhoe-dam-australia-2011/

      Prior to the criminal investigation, local media appeared to spread the message that the operation in breach of the manual caused unnecessary flooding. The QFCI hired a hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) engineering consultant to investigate the dam releases’ contribution to overall flooding. The consultant concluded that the dam was operated so that its flood mitigation efforts were near optimal. In hindsight, the QFCI report states that higher releases may have been warranted on the afternoon of the 9th and that bridge access considerations could have been dismissed at that point. However, this scenario would have also required reliance upon rainfall forecast data which had a lot of uncertainty at the time (QFCI 2012).

      While the engineers were exonerated from any criminal charges, a class action lawsuit in 2019 ruled in favor of the flood victims …..

      Seqwater appealed the 2019 ruling in February 2020 and won their appeal in September 2021

      The info in the link was written before the High Court made its decision. The HC decided not to hear the class action appeal and the decision in favour of SEQWater stands.

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  • #
    Penguinite

    If dams are the problem China is in big trouble with its Three Gorges Dam located on the Yangtze River in Yichang, Hubei Province. Australia should be building dams but have the same socialist bloc that prevents it

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  • #
    Ronin

    https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2312205755794492
    A good report by Nick Cater on what happened in Broken Hill.

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    • #
      Graeme4

      I heard that Transgrid made the decision not to allow the battery system to island, because they said that they had a “better” island scheme. Seems to have turned out that they didn’t.

      10

  • #
    Neville

    More laughable lunacy from the lefty loonies and more deaths because they removed hundreds of dams.
    But the 1980s had higher rainfall than the latest decade and co2 levels then were just perfect according to Dr Hansen and Bill McKibben’s 350 dot org. The link shows about 335 ppm to about 353 ppm during the 1980s and yet higher rainfall then for Valencia according to Matt Ridley’s graph.
    And a cumulative atmospheric co2 increase of 1100 + billion tons and still SFA change in rainfall over the last 44 years according to Matt Ridley’s summary.
    Btw does anyone believe that an increase in atmospheric co2 of about 0.0071% since 1980 really caused the flooding this month?

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1091926/atmospheric-concentration-of-co2-historic/

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  • #
    Simon

    More misdirection from the owner of the largest coal mine in the UK. Most of these “dams” are in fact weirs, culverts and ramps which would have not prevented flooding of this magnitude. The rainfall was record breaking, fueled by record breaking heat in the Mediterranean Sea. Rainfall intensities in this part of Spain are forecast to increase further.
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-023-04565-3

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    • #
      Gee Aye

      Meh, why would local scientists studying the problem know more than Matt Ridley?

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      • #

        Simon speaks ad homs, and then posts a paper of model projections of the future like this is evidence of anything except the wet dreams of modelers who have been wrong about rainfall and precipitation for fifty years.

        Gee Aye responds with a petty ad hom.

        Says a lot about both of you and nothing about Valencia.

        Would that one big water saving dam have saved lives? Is Ridley’s central thesis correct? Crickets from the religious zealots.

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        • #
          David A

          In the US state North Carolina there were many many reports of “record flooding” and it was simply a repeat of past very very bad flooding. It is also estimated that all the development over the past decades in the flood plane created obstructions that made the recent flood about 3 feet higher. Also additional development outside the flood plane contributed to more rapid run off to the rivers.

          I do not know if that contributed to the flooding referenced within this article, but the pictures indicate that is possible.

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          • #
            The Damned Nitpicking Voodude

            Spencer simulated a 500-year span, using a simple EXCEL spreadsheet-model (no REAL numbers, just the log-normal distribution). LO and BEHOLD, up pops a cataclysmic one. Well worth reading.

            Dr. Roy Spencer 2024: “Simulating Extreme Rainfall Events through Statistics

            It is easy in Excel to make a simulated time series of rainfall totals having a log-normal distribution. For example, the following plot of hypothetical daily totals for the period 1900 through 2024 shows an seemingly increasing incidence of days with the heaviest rainfall (red circles). Could this be climate change?”  

            Dr. Roy Spencer 2024: “The point here is that too often we tend to attribute severe weather events to some underlying cause that is emerging over time, such as global warming.
            And, I believe, some of the changes we have seen in nature are due to the (weak and largely benign) warming trend most regions of the world have experienced in the last 100 years.”
             

            https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/10/nc-floods-ca-drought-and-the-role-of-randomness/  

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        • #
          Gee Aye

          Say what. Adhom? Weirs culverts and ramps classified and tallied as dams. Find something more meaningful to be outraged about.

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    • #
      Graeme4

      Is the “forecast” derived from the IPCC models? If yes, I’m betting that later we can add the forecast to the growing list of failed predictions.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      More misdirection

      And would you ban such statements which you Leftists regard as “misdirection” and prosecute and persecute the purveyors of them under Australia’s (possibly) soon-to-be Leftist censorship laws, Simon?

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      • #
        Simon

        Matt Ridley is wondering…

        A tip for young sceptics, when a pundit is wondering something, they already know it’s not true, they are just “asking the question” to spread uncertainty and doubt.
        That’s free speech, it’s not telling lies or defamation.

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        • #

          And your comment is not projection of your own intentions to “spread uncertainty or doubt” even though you have zero evidence to put forward, just the usual ad homs, and argument from authority.

          We read you like a book Simon. You pretend to speak science, but use fallacious reasoning and hide behind your own deceit.

          Your hypocrisy in calling Ridley a coal mine owner while hiding your own vested interest is typical.

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    • #
      el+gordo

      This flood is not unprecedented and the record breaking heat was caused by the Hunga Tonga eruption.

      ‘Valencia, which sits along and at the mouth of the Turia River on the Mediterranean Sea, suffered similar flooding, for example, in 1897, 1957, and 1996, 127, 67, and 28 years of warming ago, respectively, when temperatures were cooler than at present.

      ‘Dozens of people died in each of those floods. The historical account of Valencia’s 1957 flooding, as documented by Caroline Angus, presents a well-known pattern of extreme rainfall events in the region, long before the age of alleged climate change.’ (wuwt)

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      Strop

      Most of these “dams” are in fact weirs, culverts and ramps

      Most? Sounds like a concession that what you consider real dams have been removed, including “Cheste dam (which) was specifically designed to prevent flooding”. Otherwise you could have said “all”.

      As for weirs, culverts, and ramps. They are all forms of a dam that restrict flows and back water up. If they didn’t then they wouldn’t have been removed. Unless these are all freely spilling over at capacity prior to the storm then they will mitigate flows and flooding to some degree. But don’t get bogged down on these forms of dams and call this a misdirection when dams “specifically designed to prevent flooding” are removed. The “most of theses dams are weirs, culverts, and ramps” is the misdirection.

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        David Maddison

        The “most of theses dams are weirs, culverts, and ramps” is the misdirection.

        It’s the form of semantic argument that the Left will use to shut down scientific debate using Australia’s proposed censorship laws.

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    John PAK

    One has to feel sorry for the Spanish however, if you look at old maps there used to be a big “Albufera Lagoon” just south of València and it had a definite outlet to the ocean. During the past half century that lagoon has been partly reclaimed and turned into farmland and the sea outlet has been mostly blocked off.
    That massive flooded region we were shown on the satellite images was basically the former Albufera Lagoon plus its low-lying hinterland which had been urbanised. València’s Rio Turia burst its banks at a bend and the river flowed through the streets into the former lagoon.
    Maybe it is time to build some flood-ways across the region and dredge a wide outlet to the sea.

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      Rainfall is getting heavier due to climate change you say?
      Do you think more dams may help, or is it a better idea to install solar panels above the high water mark, and hold the temperature increase to 1.5°C?

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    Old Goat

    It would seem the luddites have returned . So many people are getting their emotions manipulated by ruthless psychopaths . Be afraid of the future ! We can protect you if you do what we say – ignore what everyone else says . So many people are sacrificing control of their destinies for fictious safety on fact free evidence . It’s become the chicken little cult .

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      David A

      Old Goat, that story is older than you, by several thousand years.

      “Such is the nature of the Tyrant, when he first appears he is a protector.”
      Plato.

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    David Maddison

    May dams are being removed in the United States.

    https://www.fws.gov/story/2024-02/why-are-we-removing-dams

    President Trump will have to put a stop to that.

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    Macspee

    A number of severe floods through towns in Francs, Italy and Spain have been the result of building on or close to old creek or river beds. Florence will not forget in a hurry floods that devastated the town and many treasures. Mind you it happens here also – we never learn.

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      TdeF

      The attraction of building next to water is amazing. It’s natural. And often leads to disaster. But people think it’s worth the risk. Like the whole of Florida.

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    MeAgain

    Although these ecosystems serve a number of other basic functions, the importance of floodplains as a place for water retention during extreme discharges caused by intense rainfall or snowmelt and the supply of water in times of drought are essential under conditions of global change. In order to increase the ability of floodplains to perform these functions, it is increasingly required to preserve the connectivity of rivers with surrounding floodplains and adapt human activities to maintain and restore river ecosystems. https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wat2.1545 – there it is again ‘adapt human activity’

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    MeAgain

    Kariba Dam estimates are that in the event of a dam failure, 3.5 million lives will be lost in the first tsunami of water, then waves after that with the isolating waters. https://www.acismoz.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Kariba%20Damn%20Risks.pdf

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    Mike Haseler

    No matter what we do, there will always be a natural event that overtops anything done to stop it.

    However, the best course of action to stop the rain that does fall from running straight into the rivers and then rushing down in a deluge is to work with nature to hold back water before it enters the river system, and, in that river system to use natural flood plains to reduce the force and flooding in areas of habitation.

    But, that is often extremely difficult to do, because e.g. the whole of the lower Thames valley is a natural flood plain, and it is extremely heavily colonised. So, there literally is no natural flood valley to take the load and reduce the impact on the colonised parts.

    In an ideal world, this would be a job for government … but we live in a world filled with Nut Zero fascists who cannot be trusted with any power. There appears to be no way to prevent flooding, which doesn’t also involve the destruction of our civilisation by the eco-fascists … so we are going to have to live with the flood because we cannot live under the eco-fascists.

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    Salar

    Not a single flow-regulating dam has been removed in Valencia (or anywhere in Spain for that matter). This has been thoroughly debunked.

    https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/map-shows-existing-river-barriers-not-dams-removed-before-deadly-valencia-floods-2024-11-11/

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    KJP

    Après moi le déluge

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    John PAK

    I’m guessing a few peoples were trapped in their cars in València. Many modern cars have electric everything so you cannot open windows or doors if your car is submerged. Cars need to come equiped with small window hammers so that occupants can smash the rear window and escape floods and fires.

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    Bigs

    There is something good about natural flow of waterways in regards to the biodiversity and nutrients delivered by natural occurring flooding of waterways, that was the norm until the building of dams to regulate flood plains which increased livable areas.
    If people live and work in those flood plains keep, maintain, and build bikes and dams… if people don’t live there allow nature to do it’s thing.
    Those overeducated idiots in positions of authority directly and indirectly are responsible for the death and destruction caused by control systems removed without regards for the plebes living down in the flooded areas.

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