Ulez will add just 13 minutes to life expectancy in London but the Mayor is forcing it anyway

By Jo Nova

It’s not now and has never been, about your health

Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London is forcing workers to shell out thousands of pounds to buy new cars or fill his tax coffers with the £12.50 daily fee for driving slightly older models. Some will have to give up their cars altogether — and for many it means a profound change of lifestyle. Yet what’s it all for?

The Mayor’s own team shows it will achieve almost nothing, yet he’s doing it anyway. It’s not now, and has never been about “the science”. The results of research are entirely optional apparently:

SADIQ Khan’s hated ULEZ expansion will add just 13 minutes to the average life expectancy, it emerged today.

Noa Hoffman, The Sun

Research by the Mayor’s own team in collaboration with Transport for London has found the scheme’s impact will be “minor” and “negligible”.

It’s predicted to only cause a 1.3% reduction in the average Londoner’s exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2).

And it would add just 13 minutes to the life expectancy of a Londoner in 2023, according to the Channel Four News Fact Check service.

A defiant Mr Khan insists the policy is critical to improving air quality.

An extra 13 minutes is “transformative”?

A spokesperson for the Mayor said: “The science is clear – the impact of the ULEZ expansion will be transformative.

Ulez air improvements table.

Ulez is expected to make almost no difference to air quality in London. Click to enlarge. See Stop Ulez.com for more details.

The ULEZ (Ultra low emission zone) charges are projected to bring in £2.5 million a day to City Hall. That’s a nice bonus for Mr Khan to be used for all kinds of pet projects to “win friends and influence people”. Ulez will also add nearly 3,000 new cameras to the streets of London and get the riff raff off the road and onto buses where they belong.

Apparently there are two convoys protesting Ulez on Sunday in London — the PetrolHeads in vintage cars and hot rods are coming.

People are angry:

 

 

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Climate Change causes a remarkable decline in cyclones in the Indian Ocean

By Jo Nova

43% fewer cyclones is a good thing, right?

Using the same ClimateChangeTM reasoning the UN Secretary General uses, it’s clear fossil fuel use dramatically reduces the number of dangerous cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean. A new study revealed an astonishing 43% decline in the number of equatorial cyclones in recent decades (1981–2010) compared to earlier (1951–1980) when fossil fuel use was vastly reduced. The researchers also point out that this is especially interesting because “the Indian Ocean basin has warmed consistently and more than any other ocean basin.” Could it be that warmer oceans are not necessarily terrible?

The study looked at the Low-Latitude Cyclones (LLC) that originate near the equator in the North Western Indian ocean. These LLC’s are smaller but intensify more rapidly than other cyclones, giving people less time to prepare. In 2017 LLC Ockhi caught forecasters off guard, travelled 2,000 kilometers and caused the deaths of 884 people in Sri Lanka and India.

This is obviously a benefit for the billion poor people who live around the Bay of Bengal. The researchers however, for some reason do not call for an increase in fossil fuel emissions. Instead they looked for and found natural causes that they claim caused the shift — pointing at a link with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).  (Apparently climate change only causes bad trends).

 

Indian Ocean cyclones are reduced with Global Warming.

Click to enlarge.  Nature 

Thanks to Oldbrew at Tallbloke’s

The researchers were a little perplexed:

We conclude that the recent epoch (epoch-2, 1981–2010) has seen a remarkable decline in the post-monsoon LLC frequency over the north Indian Ocean in comparison with the earlier epoch (epoch-1, 1951–1980). This decline in LLC frequency (Fig. 1) cannot be attributed to an increasing SST and oceanic heat content and nearly unchanged mid-tropospheric humidity.

They quietly admit the climate models were wrong without actually saying as much. Esteemed experts in at least six peer reviewed papers had predicted that warmer oceans at this temperature would generate cyclones  that would get more frequent and more intense, and yet the opposite happened:

The warming SST, which is much above the SST threshold (26 °C) for cyclogenesis19, is expected to support an increase in frequency and intensity of TCs20,21,22,23,24,25, yet the number of BoB LLCs has decreased (Fig. 1).

In the press release we see great moments in science-writing in an attempt not to say the obvious:

Study shows a decrease in Indian Ocean cyclones

While the threat of tropical cyclones increases around the world, a new study published in Nature Communications shows one area experienced a significant decline in cyclone activity. But, with recent changes in climatic patterns in the Pacific, the number of cyclones is expected to increase in the coming decades.

In the presence of warming along the equator and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase. The paper notes the changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.

“There has been a decline close to the equator, but there has been an increase at the same time away from the equator, in the Indian Ocean,” Ray said. “Overall, there is a decline definitely, but the decline is not this high, because there was an increase away from the .”

Years from now scholars will uncover press releases like this and remark just how pervasive and obvious the bias in science literature was.

Where are the headlines? A Google News search today shows that in the seven days since the press release came out, exactly no mass media outlets have reported this good news.

Warmist ‘science’ will need to define,
Why carbon dioxide is malign,
Causing extreme typhoons,
Hurricanes and monsoons,
When cyclones are much in decline.

— Ruairi

REFERENCE

Roose, S., Ajayamohan, R.S., Ray, P. et al. Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean. Nat Commun 14, 5099 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40642-x

 

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Now the UK government wants to control your kitchen fridge or send you to jail

Prison, jail.

Image by Tracy Lundgren from Pixabay

By Jo Nova

The UK government is absolutely not asking you to ration electricity, to give up control of your own appliances, to pay more for less, and go to jail if you get it wrong.

This just looks a lot like that:

Turn on your heat pump when wind is blowing, Government pleads

Nick Gutteridge, The Telegraph

Ministers are pressing ahead with new legislation that could see families made to adopt “smart” appliances to ease pressure on the grid. Tory MPs are opposing the proposals, contained in the contentious Energy Bill which will come back before the Commons on Tuesday.

Are they your appliances or the state’s? If you don’t control the power switch you know the answer.

When they call something “smart” we know it’s stupid — and the mind-boggling complexity of central agencies switching on and off ovens and heaters across the country to “fit” with the weather is a dystopia we don’t need to have. Do you need 90 minutes to roast a chook, or 120? It depends on the wind strength in Scotland. If the kids can’t get to bed early, or you can’t wash their clothes, they can just miss the first hour of school right?

Every word is a lie:

The Government insisted it was “in no way asking people to ration electricity” and that consumers will benefit in the form of cheaper bills.

“Cheaper than what?” Consumers will pay less that the highest pagan-witchcraft energy prices they might otherwise have had to pay, but they’ll pay more than what they would have if they had a free market in energy.

The problem with trying to control the weather with our energy grid is that it’s impossible, so no request aimed at reaching into your home and bossing you around is “too much”. There is no natural endpoint. No moment when the weather will be perfect and not in need of changing somehow. No day when they can declare, “We stopped the storms — you can have your fridge back”.

The demand for power and control over the masses will just keep increasing until they revolt. So save time, revolt now.

If you like your old fridge you can keep it, but we’ll send you jail

If you think they will let you run the diesel gen and have your own heater, think again:

Property owners who don’t comply with new energy rules may face prison

Nick Gutteridge, The Telegraph

Property owners who fail to comply with new energy efficiency rules could face prison under government plans that have sparked a backlash from Tory MPs.

Ministers want to grant themselves powers to create new criminal offences and increase civil penalties as part of efforts to hit net zero targets. Under the proposals, people who fall foul of regulations to reduce their energy consumption could face up to a year in prison and fines of up to £15,000.

Tory backbenchers are set to rebel against the plans, which they fear would lead to the criminalisation of homeowners, landlords and businesses.

The proposals are contained in the Government’s controversial Energy Bill, which is set to come before the Commons for the first time when MPs return from their summer break on Tuesday.

When a two star water heater might send you to jail:

Craig Mackinlay, the head of the Net Zero Scrutiny Group, has tabled an amendment to strip the “open-ended and limitless” powers out of the legislation. He told The Telegraph: “The Bill is festooned with new criminal offences. This is just unholy, frankly, that you could be creating criminal offences

“The ones we’ve found most offensive are where a business owner could face a year in prison for not having the right energy performance certificate or type of building certification.”

h/t to Notalotofpeopleknowthat, and NetZeroWatch

 

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Bizarre messianic speech from billionaire Andrew Forrest: The hidden deadly (non) threat of Lethal Humidity

Andrew Forrest speaks in Perth

Andrew Forrest speaks of the deaths of millions coming soon…

By Jo Nova

The cult doomer prophesy upgrades to Billionaire Class. Put this man out of his misery.

Andrew Forrest, Executive Chairman of a $60 billion company made a bizarre speech a few days ago. This is a business presentation with the words like “vomit”, “stampede” and “seizures”, and pictures of skeletons in the desert. The big secret threat, he said, that scientists are not saying “is lethal humidity”. He really believes it. Here’s a man in command of the tenth largest company in Australia with a $33 billion dollar bank account, but not the judgment to get an advisor who can explain the difference between specific and relative humidity. He doesn’t realize that trends are rising in one, but falling in the other, and the modelers were wrong (again). He just had to pick up the phone and call the Met Office, or the CSIRO. They would have loved to talk to him. Even the IPCC experts could have saved him from this embarrassment.

“Lethal Humidity will be the next global pandemic” he prophecies.

“It is business that will kill your children,” he says blaming and demonizing the corporate world that made him rich.  “It is the beginning of the end”.

The message for Fortescue shareholders, is run, don’t walk. He is setting up your company to “lead the way” on a sacred mission to save humanity. He hasn’t done his homework, and worse, must have surrounded himself with people telling him what he wants to hear.

Look at the slides to see how far over the waterfall this is — they’re laid out like a book of one liner horrors for eight year olds:

“You’re going to cook pretty quickly”.

“At just 35C with high humidity you can die in six hours”

“We do not have the human evolution to survive it”

There’s no cure.

Forrest runs away with stories of acute emergency care for hyperthermia, labeled with “Harvard Medical School” because, science, yeah…

Your blood is drained cool and put back in your body...

We may have to drain the blood…

But he’s panicking about relative humidity and it’s not rising, it’s falling…

The fatalistic 35 degree death rate that Forrest is so afraid of, happens only “with 100 percent humidity” —  it refers to relative humidity, not specific humidity which is measured in grams per kilogram, not percentages, and relative humidity is falling. So “climate change” such as it is, might reduce the rate of lethal humidity.

The Humidity Paradox

Forrest claims that for every degree the world gets warmer we will get a 7% rise in humidity. This is standard bucket chemistry — like a SciFi novel written by a precocious 12 year old.  It comes from the  Clausius-Clapeyron equation, which works well in the lab but is cruelly being thwarted by slowing wind speeds or ocean currents leaving modelers scratching their heads. Even the IPCC agrees. Surface relative humidity is falling. Perplexed modelers call this “the humidity paradox” which sounds so much better than “we were wrong”, but that’s what it means. Temperature is important for evaporation, but as anyone who has hung washing on the line knows — wind speed will make or break your day and ultimately the models can’t predict future wind speeds. The dreaded “Global Stilling” was a thing right up until “Global windiness” suddenly became a great opportunity for wind farms. At one point, modelers split their bets saying the northern hemisphere winds would slow while the southern hemisphere would speed up. Confused? Join the IPCC.

Dr Kate Willett explains how the models were wrong and they don’t know why:

In theory, if there are no limiting factors, then this [7% per degree] is the rate of increase we would expect to see. However,   … this new dataset shows that relative humidity has actually decreased over many regions of the oceans. … This decrease is difficult to explain given our current physical understanding of humidity and evaporation. For example, the expectation from climate models is that ocean relative humidity should remain fairly constant or increase slightly.

The decrease in relative humidity over land is really interesting. We do not see the same decrease in historical reconstructions from climate models…

Specific humidity is rising as the world warms (compared to 1981).  A warmer world is a “wetter world.”

Specific Humidity Trend UK Met Office

But relative humidity is falling, which the models didn’t expect. Warmer air can hold more water vapor, and apparently the air is warming faster than the extra water vapor is leaping into the sky. With lower relative humidity the air has a little more capacity to cool mammals than it did 40 years ago.

Relative Humidity Trend UK Met Office

 

Andrew Forrest must have surrounded himself with people who only agree with him. There would be scores of people at Fortescue Metals who could explain the flaws to him, save him from wasting billions of dollars, and from great public embarrassment, but presumably they are all too afraid to say anything. He does keep sacking top executives, after all.

His beliefs are launched on a list of something like 60 peer reviewed papers. He quotes these papers like a kid with a chemistry set. The key words are there, but he doesn’t understand what they mean.

 

….

Most other chairmen talk about the climate but they don’t believe it.

Fortescue Metals Group is worth $60 Billion AUD. This ought to scare any investor.

h/t Raven, and Turtle.

 

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Panic now: The Australian national grid manager admits blackouts are coming

 

Photo of a Blackout

By Jo Nova

We’re on the precipice of a radical experiment with a national electricity grid

The AEMO (manager of the Australian grid) has finally released the major report on problems coming in the next ten years on our national grid, and it’s worse than they thought even six months ago. They euphemistically refer to the coming “reliability gaps”. They could have said “blackouts” instead, but a gap in reliability sounds so much nicer.

Bizarrely, the lead graph of the 175 page AEMO report goes right off the scale, mysteriously peaking in the unknown and invisible real estate off the top of the chart.  And they’re not projecting troubles fifty years from now. Those cropped peaks of invisible pain hit from 2027.

And even the pain we can see is apparently quite bad. Two states are already likely to breach “the interim reliability measure” in this coming summer.  Ominously, just one day after releasing the report, the AEMO is calling for tenders for “reliability reserves” in South Australia and Victoria. Apparently, they want offers of industries ready to shut down who aren’t already on the list, and they want spare generation too — get this — even asking for “small onsite generators”. Does that sound bad to you? It sounds bad to me.

As the calm analyst Paul McArdle says:

“Based on current trajectory, we’re in for a world of pain ahead.  …the AEMO projections are looking pretty dire.”

Consider figure 1:  A decade of blackouts coming

Have you ever seen a graph like this that hides the peaks? In the “central scenario” of the cropped graph — “only” four states of Australia go off the charts. Imagine what the bad scenario looks like…

AEMO, ESOO, 2023, Reliability Graph.

AEMO, ESOO, 2023. Figure 1 shows the reliability forecast and indicative reliability forecast for the 2023 ESOO Central scenario. This forecast considers only the sub-set of known  developments that have demonstrated sufficient commitment towards commissioning in the NEM (those developments classified as committed or anticipated), including announced retirements, and allows for project delivery schedules that may be slower than proponents  have advised based on observed development, approval and commissioning requirements.

Given that South Australia flew in diesel jet engines for back up generation at one point (General Electric aero-derivative turbines)  — perhaps we can ask Qatar Airlines if they can plug some planes straight into our grid? (The government won’t let them fly in more passengers, in case it screws up Qantas profits, but that means they must have a few  planes they can spare.)

A leap to Figure 43 suggests those hidden peaks of Figure 1 might be quite high in NSW and Victoria. Figure 43 shows the same “Central Scenario” as Figure 1 — this time as dotted lines — and we are allowed to see a bit more of the graph. The y axis is the same Expected Unserved Energy (%) this time reaching up to 0.007%. But the NSW (blue) and Victorian (grey) lines are doing the Moonshot thing in 2027. They’re headed to infinity or some number the AEMO didn’t want to graph.

AEMO, ESOO, 2023, Reliability Graph.

AEMO, ESOO, 2023,

The solid lines in Figure 43 are the slightly better scenarios that include contributions from CER or “Consumer Energy Resources” (that’s you!). This is what the future looks like with more help from things like solar panels on rooftops, home batteries, and Electric Vehicles. It’s also the best we can do with DSP assistance — which means Demand Side Participation — those people who participate by not demanding electricity. In normal English we would call them the customers who are paid to stay away or something.

Ten different ways to go without electricity

The AEMO doesn’t use the word blackout, but it has a dozen flavours of blackouts-by-another-name, many of them voluntary or subsidized and somewhat prearranged. It looks so much better on paper to say “DSP” but it means someone, somewhere going without electricity when they would otherwise have used it. DSP gets 146 mentions in the AEMO report, giving us some idea on how mini-blackouts are now an essential part of managing a very sick grid.

At a minimum DSP may just be an inconvenience — people have to program their washing machine and pool filter to run at lunchtime, which sounds fine until you have only one sunny day that week and you have six loads of washing. In a rich world without “reliability gaps” you would just run it, conveniently, from 5 to 10 pm the night before.

DSP is code for people willing (or dragged), in some sense, to have a voluntary mini-blackout — and the report notes the major factor driving an increase in DSP uptake is because electricity is now more expensive (what a great thing?). The AEMO notes: “These higher prices have led to more benefits to customers participating in DSP schemes or responding directly to market signals”. Table 5 lists the Negawatts of voluntary outages when prices rise to $1,000, $5,000 and $7,500 per megawatt hour…

Now that Alice lives in Downunder-land — more expensive electricity means customers get more “benefits” when they don’t use it. See how this works? Only the wealthy will have the convenience of electricity whenever they want it. The underclass will be cooking on barbeques, and getting up earlier each day to program the washing machine and set up the timers for the scooters.

Ominously the AEMO projects a lot more voluntary blackouts:

Demand-side-Response (blackouts) become the norm.

AEMO, ESOO, 2023

Drowning in complexity

The message in 42 tables and 100 figures is unspoken, but obvious — the Australian grid is drowning in complexity, there are so many moving unpredictable parts. The report models the various possibilities of low rain, low wind, low stocks of fossil fuels, droughts, heatwaves, and unexpected outages. They try to model some combinations and permutations of multiple troubles occurring simultaneously. Whether we get and can afford electricity now depends on ocean currents in the Pacific that no one can predict. We live in the land of drought and flooding rains, and we’re hoping the weather will be nice.

The AEMO brightly says that it can be managed, see Figure 2, if we just build 10,000 kilometers of high transmission lines through farmland and forests, and then finish all the wind farms and solar magic panels, along with lots more voluntary blackouts, “consumer investments” (home batteries) and dispatchable capacity (whatever could that be?)

The last thought is the predictions for South Australia:

There is an 84% chance under a “neutral/unknown climate outlook” that South Australia will have no blackouts this summer. But there is a 16% chance that some will occur, and these are most likely to be 1-3 hours long affecting 5 to 30% of the region (which means “of the state”, presumably). But there is a tiny chance they might lose half the state for as much as 16 hours (spread over four different nights, say).  I bet they are praying they don’t get a hot windless week?

But even if they don’t have one blackout, more of people’s lives will be wasted paying electricity bills and reading articles on how to save electricity, how to reprogram the pool filter, how to charge the kids scooter, how to put out fires started by the scooter…

 

Electricity predictions, South Australia unreliability, blackouts.

If that’s a neutral/unknown outlook, what does it look like for a long hot summer?

Keep reading  →

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London wakes up to the Nightmare on Ulez — this Net Zero bill can’t be hidden and the people are furious

By Jo Nova

Suddenly a lot of people in London are realizing what “Net Zero” really means

UK ULEZ protest. London. Photo

Nigel Farage at the Ulez protests in London

This week many Londoners are waking up to the impact of living in an Ultra Low Emission Zone as the £12.50 daily charge for unfashionable cars begins in the outer poorer suburbs.

Normally “climate change” costs are secretly buried in bills, hidden in rising costs and blamed on “old unreliable coal plants”, inflation or foreign wars. Your electricity bill does not have a category for “subsidies for your neighbors solar panels”. But the immense pain of NetZero can’t be disguised.

For a pensioner on £186 a week it could be as much as an £87 a week penalty for driving their car — or £4,500 a year. The Daily Mail is full of stories of livid and dismayed people who served in the Navy or worked fifty years, who can’t afford to look after older frail Aunts or shop in their usual stores now, or who will have to give up their cars. People are talking about the “end of Democracy”. The cameras are expected to bring in £2.5 million a day in ULEZ charges to City Hall. But shops inside the zone may also lose customers, and everyone, with and without cars will have to pay more for tradespeople and deliveries to cover the cost of their new car or Ulez fee.

Protests have reached a new level of anger and hooded vigilantes in masks carry long gardening clippers, or spray cans and lazers to disable cameras that record number plates for Ulez. In one photo the whole metal camera pole has been sheared by an electric saw of some sort. There chaos.

Interactive maps have sprung up to report where the cameras are, and help people “plan their trips”. The vigilante group called Blade Runners have vowed to remove or disable every ULEZ camera in London. Nearly nine out of ten cameras have been vandalized in South-east London.

The Transport for London website was overwhelmed with searches from people wondering if their car was compliant and they would have to pay just to drive on the roads their taxes and fees built. Some people have bought old historic cars to get around the fee, but apparently a lot of people hadn’t thought much about what was coming. Sadiq Khan probably didn’t mention this in his election campaign. Presumably there are others in London who will get a nasty surprise bill in the mail.

As Nigel Farage says: “I’ve never seen people so angry about this new tax on working people. “And people are not just furious at Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, they’re angry at the Prime Minister and the conservatives for not stopping the scheme.

Politicians all over the West should be watching London

Protest against Richi Sunak for the ULEZ scheme. Sept 6th.

The shock win 6 weeks ago of an anti-Ulez candidate in Boris Johnson’s old seat rattled both sides of politics to the point where even Sir Keir Starmer the Labor Opposition leader has been pressuring Sadiq Khan to slow down. The Labor Party appeared to suddenly recognize that their  green flank was exposed and vulnerable to any conservatives who spoke up for car owners, which, of course, might win them millions of votes.

The only way the unpopular green policies win elections is when the costs are hidden and the plans are described in vaporous motherware lines of clean air and fluffy koalas. But the Ulez fees are a full frontal attack on lifestyles, especially of the poor.

With a first-past-the -post voting system in the UK both sides of politics are very vulnerable to splinter factions that break away on key topics and fracture their vote. The only way unpopular green schemes win elections is when both sides of “the Uniparty” have the same policy.

People all over the West should be watching London, because if Sadiq Khan gets away with this, it will happen everywhere.

Katie Hopkins is appalled that people are vandalizing cameras with filling foam from ToolStation for £6.69:

One Tory MP — Sir Iain Duncan Smith has said he backs the “Blade Runners”.  The former cabinet minister said today he was ‘happy’ for the residents of his Chingford and Woodford Green constituency to destroy cameras because they have been ‘lied to’.

Vandalism is of course a bad thing.  The worst vandals are the ones who run for elections without telling the voters they plan to take their cars, their jobs, their lifestyle and toss them in the Thames. Those vandals ransack whole democracies with deceit.

It would be so much better wouldn’t it, if the PM held a referendum on Net Zero and let the people decide?

h/t David Maddison, and Topher. I’ll be talking about this on The Aussie Wire with Topher.

Keep reading  →

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“Big Pharma is the worlds biggest lobbying organisation”

By Jo Nova

Vivek Ramaswamy worked in the pharmaceutical industry. Now that he’s free to speak, he distills the utter corruption of the FDA in under four minutes, it is beyond redemption, rotten to the core.  “That’s’s why I favor a dramatic drastic gutting of the FDA…” — he says. Exactly…

He’s a great speaker:

From his Twitter feed:  “The corrupt FDA says you don’t have the right to even *try* medicines that haven’t been through 10+ years of testing, yet the government *mandated* Covid vaccines that sailed through FDA approval in less than 1 year.  You can’t believe both things at once. Countless FDA regulations and actions are hypocritical, harmful & unconstitutional. I will rescind them accordingly, using the Supreme Court’s holding in West Virginia vs. EPA as my legal basis for doing so. For years I was coached by industry veterans not to speak out against FDA. It’s well known that if you anger FDA, they will punish you by blackballing review of your drug review applications. “FDA never forgets” is a quietly-whispered, well-known pharma industry adage. Well, they could only shut me up for so long. Now I speak freely as a citizen.” — @VivekGRamaswamy

Meanwhile — circulating somewhere on the web, sent in by Charles:

FD, Pfizer, Revolving door.

h.t Charles

  Scott Gottlieb (Pfizer)  | James Smith | Stephen HahnAnthony  Fauci

 

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90% of new car sales in Norway are EV’s — but fuel demand has only fallen 10%

EV Charging

By Jo Nova

Yet another reason EV’s are a lousy way to “save the world”

The point of all the subsidies, the charging sites, the $3,000 parking fines, the extra generation, interrupted journeys, pot-holes, road-wear, tyre pollution, collapsing parking lots and random fires is supposedly so that we make the weather nicer by burning less fossil fuels. But in Norway where the biggest experiment in EV’s has produced an “idyllic” mass uptake of EV’s, the fuel use has hardly changed.

Rystad Energy says that this shows we *must* electrify the buses, tractors and trucks too, but really this just shows what a waste of money all the past subsidies were.

If the “low hanging fruit” subsidies didn’t achieve much, the next round of subsidies will have to waste stupendous amounts of money. Remember this doesn’t include fuel used to power the electricity cars, nor the fuel used to mine the lithium and build the EV, or to fill in the potholes and rebuild the bridges. No one even knows if EV’s will reduce carbon dioxide. “There’s no such thing as a zero emissions vehicle”.

This is just “road fuel” we’re talking about and it’s not reducing it much:

Is Norway’s Love For EVs Enough To Put A Dent In Fuel Demand?

By Rystad Energy – Aug 28, 2023, 9:00 AM CDT, OilPrice.com

Although EVs make up about 90% of all new car sales in Norway, fuel demand has only seen a 10% fall from 2017 to 2023, remaining relatively stable.

Road fuel demand in Norway has remained relatively stable even with soaring electric vehicle (EV) adoption, raising questions about whether EVs really have a material impact on diesel and gasoline sales. Rystad Energy research and modeling has, however, uncovered the truth behind the persistent sales – electrifying heavy-duty vehicles, especially trucks, is essential to lowering overall fuel consumption.

EVs are often positioned as the key to decarbonizing transportation, but the latest data from the Norwegian government suggests otherwise. Electric cars have accounted for at least 80% of all passenger vehicle sales for the past three years. EVs – including plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) – accounted for about 90% of all new car sales in 2023. More than 50% of passenger cars on the road in Oslo are electric, a threshold that BEVs alone will pass 50% in the next two years.

As far as experiments go, if anyone cared about CO2 emissions — the Norwegian EV program is a fail.

VW, volkswagon, electric vehicle. ID.3Drilling into the details, you might assume that Norwegians have used EV’s for the only bearable outcome they could find, which was short trips that didn’t use much fuel, which is why they didn’t make much difference. But Rystad Energy claims people drive the average BEV slightly further than the average diesel.

Since 2018, the average BEV in Norway has driven more miles than passenger cars of any other fuel type. In 2022, the average BEV drove  12,950 kilometers (km), surpassing for the first time the average distance of 12,000 km for diesel passenger vehicles. Overall, average passenger vehicle travel has steadily declined in Norway, from about 13,800 km in 2007 to 11,100 km in 2022.

They looked at official fuel sales, annual average mileage and car sales as reported by Statistics Norway and estimate that passenger car fuel demand is down 20%, which is “in line with the BEV market penetration”, which it might be, but it’s still a big nothing in terms of stopping storms, floods and fires. No jet streams were altered by this experiment.

Other factors confounding the experiment is that fuel demand from buses and trucks has grown from 30,000 barrels per day to 32,000. Plus the population grew, and people own slightly more cars per capita.  (We all know EV’s are more likely to be the second car?) There are so many moving variables here — do governments that push EV’s onto the population also increase immigration thus undermining their own emissions reductions efforts? (Yes they do, and all the time). Are the populations that buy EV’s so wealthy they can afford the luxury of a second car? Does the increase in fuel prices (which was driven by green policies) mean more people catch buses and order online now, so instead of driving to the store, big diesel trucks now deliver their parcels?

Rystad Energy have a very long explanation of why really the fuel savings from EV’s are “just around the corner” — like everything else in Transition-World.

If politicians and activists actually cared about CO2, they wouldn’t be doing this.

Image by Nerijus jakimavičius and Vogler

 

 

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